10 September 2006

On the Eve of 9/11: Flashback to the Future...

On the eve of 9/11/2006 we look back five years and it seems like it was yesterday. Tomorrow we might be at a church memorial services, as we will in downtown Washington, DC. Saying prayers for those who have fallen, and their families.

Yet, tomorrow will not only be full of emotions of years past. It will be prayers for the future. That our children across the globe will somehow be able to call this date in history the beginning of a new world order.

The Operational Risks we all endure on a daily basis are there in front of us. Some are more obvious and predictable. They have a history and a pattern to be analyzed and forecasted. Those risks that are low probability and have little or no historical context are the events to fear.

The new world order in front of us today is increasing complex and dynamic. Chaos seems to be a good adjective for much of what we see and hear in our daily consumption of news and media. How can any person in Moscow, Beijing, Tokyo, Sydney, LA, NYC, DC, London, Paris, Madrid, Baghdad, Kabul or Rome make sense of what the future holds for mankind?

The only certainty is that the speed of change and the age of unreason will unfold at a velocity that our children will call the "New Normal". The flashback to the future is nothing more than an accelerated version of the past. Gods Speed to all of us!

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