29 August 2020

Human Factors: Minds Eye of Risk...

Flashback to 2007.  There seems to be some continuing debate out there about the concept of adopting a strategy of "Protection" vs. "Resilience".

The question is whether to focus your resources and assets on preemptive or adaptive missions.

Whenever organizations adopt the guards gates and guns mentality as a high ratio of deployed assets and presence, it does have a deterrence effect.

Having a high profile, showing your hand and creating a visible barrier to obtaining the desired target(s) can have a positive outcome.  However, it must be in greater balance with the ability to be agile and to adapt to human factors.

Resilience represents a layered approach with multiple contingencies and the mindset that even the highest walls, stealth technology or deepest oceans will not prevent catastrophic failure from a future occurrence.

The topic along with the Critical Infrastructure nexus has been discussed in depth for almost the past decade. Grants, studies and academia have found this "Protection" vs. "Resiliency" debate worth writing about:
"The goal of this working paper series is to point out trajectories of the concept of critical infrastructure resilience in theory, policy, and implementation. On the one hand, “resilience” may just be another policy buzzword; but on the other hand, it might indicate a shift in perception and priority of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences. Indeed, the Critical Infrastructure Task Force (CITF) has recently recommended to the Homeland Security Advisory Committee (HSAC) to “Promulgate Critical Infrastructure Resilience (CIR) as the top-level strategic objective - the desired outcome - to drive national policy and planning.”

Defined broadly as the ability of a system to withstand to and recover from adversity, resilience is increasingly applied to larger social and technical systems. Stress and adversity are experienced not only by individuals and groups, but also by organizations and institutions. In the context of increasing natural and man-made threats and vulnerabilities of modern societies, the concept seems particularly useful to inform policies that mitigate the consequences of such adverse and potentially catastrophic events."
While each of the authors in the white paper cited above from George Mason University in 2007 have their unique perspectives on the topic being discussed, yet Lewis J. Perelman, Senior Fellow
Homeland Security Policy Institute, in Washington, DC gets the prize:
"The allure of resilience is stoked by the contradictions and thorny tradeoffs inherent in traditional concepts of ‘national security’ in an age of increasing social-technical complexity, transnational ‘globalization,’ and ‘asymmetric’ conflict. Certainly, ‘homeland security’ has realized, since 2001, both political impetus and bureaucratic mass. Nevertheless it has been fraught by a tumultuous and yet unresolved quest to reconcile legitimate but competing social objectives:

• Security against attacks vs. security against natural disasters, disease, accidents, etc.;
• Intelligence operations vs. privacy;
• War-fighting vs. human rights, civil liberties, the rule of law, etc.;
• Needs for secrecy vs. needs for information sharing;
• Federal responsibility vs. state/local/private authority;
• Centralized command and control vs. communal collaboration.
As the debate continues on a hard vs. soft policy perspective Perelman identifies one of the key components of Operational Risk Management. Human Factors.  His suggestion of adding human factors to the equation for risk is critical to the issue:
Risk = HF(Threat x Vulnerability x Consequences)

where HF is a function of the “soft” human factors that translate the “hard,” physical parameters of engineering failure into human perceptions, emotions, and behavior.
Human behavior and the perception of risk continues to be at the center of the overall discussion. Socially, what is more of a threat?

Loss of the use of a half dozen buildings, an entire city or the Internet itself. Is the threat a hurricane, a radiological device or the most deviant virus known to date?

The perception of "Risk" as being in the eye of the beholder is not new here. The policy being shaped across the globe however, is moving rapidly towards a mindset of agility, adaptiveness and endurance.

That alone, should be the clue that "Resilience" will remain a major facet of the risk strategy paradigm of choice again in the next decade...

23 August 2020

Destination Unknown: Explore, Adapt & Learn...

What is your new destination?  How will you get there?

The business climate in your particular industry is adapting to the latest global change upon us in 2020.  What are you implementing now, that will change the processes, business rules and positive outcomes for you in the foreseeable future?

Creative activities to adapt to your particular new approach to customers, clients and followers requires new thinking.  It may achieve your primary destination, yet how long will it take to arrive?

As you “Go-to-Market” in your particular industry sector in 2021, what new innovations and strategies will be in place?  Have you thoroughly prototyped your solutions and discovered their results?  What have you learned?

Was your industry launched in 1903 at Kitty Hawk, NC or Dearborn, MI?  Your business is going to require more than one “Maverick” to achieve your future destination on a timely basis.

You will require exponential unconventional thinking.  People who are “Nonconformist”, “Dissenting” and “Iconoclastic”.


How many years have you been running your business this way?  In the same cities, with the same labor pools, absent of any new thoughts of creativity.

When was the last time you financed a new product launch with a brand new sales force?

Perhaps you have a tradition of doing business with the same old Legal Counsel, Accounting firm, or hosting systems of Information Technology services.  Are you using the same suppliers for talent acquisition?  Look where you are today.

Are you capable of creating a new “Business Unit,” that will shed the past and test the future of your organization and your industry?  Then do it.

The future of your business and country requires it.  Your particular contributions to our economic livelihood, persistence and longevity, needs your new ingenuity and continuous resilience.
Head out there.
Explore.  Adapt.  Learn.

16 August 2020

Our Future Together: Trusted Life Journey...

What does our future hold for us? It will be an outlook that we decide. Every minute, of every day you see and learn more about your particular outcomes, your ability to understand.

Yet it will be your decision to act, at the right moments in your journey, that will make all of the difference.

Success and a joyful life is a mosaic of dedication, purposeful work and tremendous faith.

We have achieved a combination of all of these and we are only about three quarters of the way there, to our final destination.

At the foundation and throughout your memories of the hours, days and years of the past, what do you remember? As the most challenging and as the most rewarding times?

Sitting there in the bright sunshine overlooking the Pacific Ocean, with a slightly cool breeze, thoughts of our journey together so far, were consciously present.

In the reflection of all of those countless thoughts, only one person stood out. You see, your faith in that one person, will make all of the difference in your life.

Who will you Trust as you descend into the depths of the Ocean together?

Who will you Trust as you ascend to the top of the Mountain together?

Once you have found this Trusted companion in your life journey, look up…and never let go!

09 August 2020

Intelligence-led Investigations: DecisionAdvantage...

"Whoever wishs to foresee the future must consult the past; for human events ever resemble those of preceding times. This arises from the fact that they are produced by men who ever have been, and ever shall be, animated by the same passions, and thus they necessarily have the same results." --Machiavelli

Operational Risk incidents are surrounding us on a global basis. The continuity of operations in the rescue and relief efforts in Beirut. The security of privacy information and Internet politics with Google and 3+ other global companies. A growing threat while Islam converts continuously flock from across the globe, to conflict zones. The economic integrity of global banking with new rule-sets and continuous funds transfer oversight.

All of these Operational Risk Management (ORM) challenges, require the same intelligence-led investigations, to establish the ground truth and then to enable an effective "DecisionAdvantage."

When does information that is collected, become a violation of a persons privacy or legal rights? At the point it is collected from a source or at the point in time when it is analyzed by a human?

Intelligence-led investigations today include the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) automated Internet Bots, to troll the Internet and Open Source content (OSINT) for the collectors to find what they are looking for. This begins with a hypothesis and then the development of an algorithm, to carry out the automated mechanism for collection.

These Intelligence-led investigations also include the use of new forensically sound methods and proven procedures for collection of digital data, from a myriad of technology platforms including laptops, IoT's and cell phones.

These methods have been proven and certified in the forensic sciences for decades and follow many of the legally bound and court tested rules associated with evidence collection, preservation and presentation.

Digital Forensic tools and 21st century capabilities enable global enterprises, law enforcement and governments to not only discover what they are looking for, but to use this in a court of law to verify the truth.

The monitoring and collection of information associated with people begins various intersections with the context, relevance and legality of storing it, analyzing it and when to destroy it. What is at stake?  The ability to do this effectively inside the walls of the global enterprise corporate headquarters, the Regional Fusion Center or buildings off Rt. 123.

"DecisionAdvantage" is a term that promotes the connotation of competition, safety or defeating an adversary, yet only one will apply as you begin to understand the environment and the circumstances under which information is being utilized for one or the other.

If you are making decisions on the most safe and ideal drop points for water, food and medical triage supplies in a Middle East or an African nation, decisions are being made with information collected from satellites, humans, and perhaps the national geological scientists at CalTech.

It isn't until you take all of these elements into context and establish relevancy with human brainpower, that you will make an informed decision to give you an advantage of improved safety and security to achieve your objectives.

Investigators or Analysts are leveraging the use of 21st century software, hardware and telecommunications cloud infrastructure to more efficiently arrive at the answers,.  They utilize the hard hypothesis or questions being asked, and must improve their training, education and awareness to the associated human factors.

Predicting human behavior is difficult if not impossible.

What is more realistic is the utilization of AI systems to assist the human in trying to achieve "DecisionAdvantage".
"History, by appraising...[the students] of the past, will enable them to judge of the future." --Thomas Jefferson

01 August 2020

Cultural Cognition: The Velocity of our Future...

“The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge, but imagination” - Albert Einstein

In the culture that you are part of, there are Trust Decisions being made in seconds based upon rules.  Yet your particular culture has evolved over time, also because of the affinity that your culture attracts other people, just like you.

The question is, who do you really aspire to be?

“How do you make trust decisions about people, associations, tools, or their value when the information upon which you will rely is increasingly digital and intangible?
In a global culture in which digital trust is under attack and degrading, how can you build and engender old-fashioned human trust with your customers, business partners, associates, and employees?” -Jeffrey Ritter - Achieving Digital Trust - P. 21
When you enter the realm of a culture that is constantly being recorded, digitized, captured, communicated and transferred, the behaviors and thoughts of people will be studied.  They will be analyzed and they will be judged.

What are you doing today to learn and improve how you operate in a digital world?  How are you making decisions between trust, and pure risk?

Our cultures are rapidly evolving towards “Artificial Intelligence” and tool sets to assist humans in making more informed decisions, faster.  Why?

Quality and Velocity.

What made you decide to learn Mathematics?  How did you decide to become a Software Engineer?

What made you decide to learn the Law?  How did you decide to become a Lawyer?

You like rules don’t you.  You have a hard time living in a world, where the rules are being ignored or broken.

How fast will you be able to adapt to the change in the “Digital Ecosystems” that mankind has created on our Earth?

The truth is, you and your organizational culture is already in the midst of an “S” curve and you must now “Grow or Die”.

To improve and adapt in a world, that is accelerating and whose velocity is reaching light speed requires new tools and mechanisms to assist us in our “Trust Decisions”.

For those cultures and situations where trust is at stake, the utilization of technological inventions will evolve and grow as the standards for evaluating the truth.

We as humans are already at a point where we are trusting digital devices and machines, more than we trust ourselves.

The Safety, Security and Velocity of the evolution of our Digital Future is at stake.

Now is the time for our cultures to recognize, question, learn and improve how we engage with our machines, our software, our Mathematics and our Law.

It is now all about our TrustDecisions